By SAL SAYGIN SIMSEK (April 11, 2025)

NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, has faced challenges in recent years, including debates over its relevance, funding, and the commitment of member states. Some critics argue that shifting global dynamics and internal disagreements have weakened the alliance.

The United States is the backbone of NATO, wielding unparalleled influence within the alliance. It contributes the largest share of NATO’s budget and possesses the most advanced military capabilities, including nuclear deterrence, cutting-edge technology, and global reach. The U.S. military’s presence in Europe, with bases and troops stationed across the continent, reinforces NATO’s collective defense strategy. Beyond its military strength, the U.S. plays a pivotal role in shaping NATO’s policies and strategic direction.

Turkiye holds significant power within NATO due to its strategic location, military strength, and diplomatic influence. As a member since 1952, Turkiye has NATO’s second-largest army, providing substantial manpower for defense and operations. Its geographical position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East makes it a critical player in regional security and global geopolitics.

Turkiye’s defense industry has grown considerably, producing effective equipment like the Bayraktar TB2 drones, which have proven valuable in modern warfare. Additionally, Turkiye controls key waterways, such as the Bosphorus Strait, under the Montreux Convention, which impacts naval movements in the Black Sea.

Over the past decade, Turkiye and the United States have experienced a complex and evolving relationship, marked by cooperation and occasional tensions. Here are some key highlights:

1. Strategic Partnership: Turkiye remains a vital NATO ally, contributing to regional security and counterterrorism efforts. The U.S. has relied on Turkiye’s strategic location, particularly the Incirlik Air Base, for operations in the Middle East.
2. Challenges: The relationship has faced strains due to issues like Turkiye’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, which led to U.S. sanctions and Turkiye’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet program. Additionally, disagreements over U.S. support for Kurdish groups in Syria have caused friction.
3. Diplomatic Engagements: Despite challenges, both nations have worked together on critical issues, including the fight against ISIS and addressing regional instability. The U.S. has emphasized the importance of keeping Turkiye anchored to the Euro-Atlantic community.
4. Recent Developments: The relationship saw a more constructive tone in recent years, with increased coordination on Ukraine and defense cooperation. However, mutual mistrust remains evident in negotiations on Sweden’s NATO accession and Turkiye’s purchase of F-35 and F-16 fighter aircraft.

Recent developments have brought both challenges and opportunities to Turkey-US relations:

1. Defense Cooperation: Turkiye’s acquisition of upgraded F-16 fighter jets has restored some trust between the two nations. This move reflects a renewed focus on defense collaboration, despite past tensions over Turkiye’s purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems.
2. Sweden’s NATO Accession: Turkiye’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership marked a significant diplomatic step, showcasing Turkiye’s willingness to align with broader NATO goals.
3. Diplomatic Engagements: High-level meetings, such as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to the U.S., have emphasized a mutual desire to strengthen ties, particularly in defense and regional security.
4. Geopolitical Dynamics: The evolving global landscape, including the war in Ukraine, has prompted closer coordination between Turkiye and the U.S. on regional stability and defense strategies

Turkiye and the United States share a multifaceted financial relationship, shaped by trade, investment, and economic cooperation. Here are some key aspects:

1. Trade: The U.S. is one of Turkiye’s major trading partners, with bilateral trade covering goods like machinery, vehicles, and agricultural products. Turkiye exports textiles, steel, and electronics to the U.S., while importing advanced technology and defense equipment.
2. Investment: American companies have invested in various sectors in Turkiye, including energy, technology, and manufacturing. Turkiye’s strategic location and growing economy make it an attractive destination for U.S. investors.
3. Economic Challenges: The relationship has faced hurdles, such as tariffs and sanctions imposed during political disputes. These measures have occasionally strained economic ties but have also led to negotiations and resolutions.
4. Regional Cooperation: Both countries collaborate on economic initiatives in the Middle East and beyond, leveraging Turkiye’s position as a bridge between Europe and Asia.

Turkiye and the United States have a growing interest in rare minerals, particularly due to their importance in technology, defense, and clean energy. Here are some key points:

1. Turkiye’s Rare Mineral Reserves: Turkiye has discovered one of the world’s largest rare earth element reserves, located in Eskişehir. This deposit includes minerals like thorium, fluorite, and barite, which are critical for nuclear technology and advanced manufacturing.
2. Strategic Partnerships: Turkiye recently joined the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), a U.S.-led initiative aimed at diversifying global supply chains for rare earth minerals. This collaboration positions Turkiye as a key player in reducing reliance on China’s dominance in the rare earth market.
3. Production Goals: Turkiye aims to produce significant quantities of rare earth oxides annually, which could benefit U.S. industries, including defense and clean energy.
4. Geopolitical Implications: Turkiye’s involvement in rare earth production aligns with broader U.S. efforts to secure critical minerals and strengthen supply chains amid global competition

Turkiye has played a significant role in the Syrian conflict, particularly in opposition to Bashar al-Assad’s regime. In December 2024, Assad’s government fell to Syrian opposition forces, marking a major shift in the region. Turkiye’s involvement included backing rebel groups and maintaining a military presence in northern Syria, which helped shape the outcome. This aligns with Turkiye’s long-standing goal of countering Kurdish forces near its border and influencing Syria’s future.

The fall of Assad has increased Turkiye’s regional influence but also presents strategic challenges, such as managing relations with various opposition factions and addressing the concerns of Syrian refugees.

Protecting minorities in Syria remains a critical challenge, especially in the aftermath of the Syrian Civil War and the recent fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Here are some key developments:

1. Violence Against Minorities: Recent clashes have resulted in significant casualties among minority groups, including Christians and Alawites. These communities have faced targeted violence, highlighting the ongoing risks they endure.
2. International Condemnation: The United States and other nations have condemned attacks on Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities. They have called for accountability and measures to protect these vulnerable groups.
3. Interim Government’s Promises: Syria’s interim leadership has pledged to respect all communities and affiliations. However, the recent violence raises concerns about the government’s ability to ensure safety and stability for minorities

Protecting minorities in Syria requires a multifaceted approach, addressing both immediate safety concerns and long-term stability. Here are some strategies:

1. International Oversight: Establishing international monitoring bodies to oversee the treatment of minorities and ensure accountability for human rights violations.
2. Legal Protections: Enacting and enforcing laws that guarantee equal rights and protections for all ethnic and religious groups, regardless of the ruling government.
3. Decentralization: Advocating for a federal system, as some experts suggest, to allow diverse regions to govern themselves while respecting minority rights.
4. Community Engagement: Encouraging dialogue and cooperation between different communities to rebuild trust and promote coexistence.
5. Humanitarian Aid: Providing targeted support to minority communities, including access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities.
6. Global Support: Leveraging international partnerships to pressure local authorities and extremist groups to respect minority rights.

Secular democracy is needed in Syria for long term peace and protecting ethnic and religious minorities. However, promoting secular democracy in Syria is a complex challenge, especially given its diverse population and history of authoritarian rule. Here are some strategies that could help:

1. Inclusive Governance: Establishing a political system that represents all ethnic and religious groups, ensuring minority rights and preventing sectarianism.
2. Education Reform: Promoting secular education to foster critical thinking and reduce the influence of extremist ideologies.
3. International Support: Leveraging global partnerships to provide financial aid, expertise, and diplomatic backing for democratic reforms.
4. Civil Society Empowerment: Strengthening local organizations and activists who advocate for democracy and human rights.
5. Legal Frameworks: Implementing constitutional reforms that guarantee freedoms, equality, and separation of religion from state affairs.

Secularism has seen a notable rise in parts of the Middle East, challenging traditional norms and religious dominance. This shift is driven by several factors:

1. Changing Social Attitudes: Surveys indicate growing secular identities, especially among younger generations in countries like Tunisia, Lebanon, and Egypt. For example, Tunisia has seen a significant increase in nonreligious individuals.
2. Urbanization and Modernization: As cities expand and societies modernize, secular values often gain traction, influencing education, governance, and cultural practices.
3. Disillusionment with Islamism: In some regions, the failure of Islamist movements to deliver on promises has led to a decline in their appeal, paving the way for secular ideologies.
4. Legal and Cultural Challenges: Despite the rise, secularism faces resistance, with anti-atheist legislation and cultural taboos still prevalent in many areas

Turkiye’s diplomatic and strategic relationships have evolved significantly, reflecting its growing influence on both European and transatlantic stages. At institutions like Chatham House, Turkiye’s role in regional stability, economic reforms, and its position within NATO are frequently analyzed. These discussions emphasize Turkiye’s importance in addressing challenges like the Syrian crisis and its ambitions in multilateral institutions.

On the transatlantic front, Turkiye’s alignment with the White House has strengthened through initiatives like NATO’s Strategic Concept and defense collaborations. Turkiye’s approval of Sweden’s NATO membership and its participation in U.S.-led initiatives, such as the Minerals Security Partnership, highlight its increasing integration into Western priorities.