June 26, 2025

by Dr Walid Phares

The U.S. effectively destroyed the known militarized nuclear sites of the Islamic regime in Iran.

Israel, on the other hand, dealt significant damage to the regime’s defense systems, while also targeting and eliminating key leadership figures.

In a shift of tactics, Israel began focusing on the Basij militia, which opened a window – now closed – for the Iranian people to rise against the regime.

Desperate, the regime turned to Qatar to seek ceasefire negotiations. Meanwhile, its U.S.-based lobbies and supporters managed to buy the “Islamic Republic” more time through diplomatic talks.

As of now:

The Trump administration succeeded in setting back Iran’s nuclear program by at least two years or more.

Israel demonstrated its ability to absorb missile attacks, despite sustaining losses, while simultaneously destroying air defenses, targeting leadership, and weakening oppressive militias inside Iran. However, it also learned just how influential the regime’s lobby is within the U.S.

The Khomeinist regime, while losing its nuclear sites and suffering heavy damage to its defense systems, proved its ability to launch waves of missiles and recognized its vulnerability on the domestic front. Yet, despite its military setbacks, the regime managed to secure its survival by agreeing to rejoin the talks.

The Iranian people are, at this stage, the biggest victims. The conflict exposed the world to the regime’s dwindling support among the Iranian population, yet it also revealed the lack of meaningful support—or any at all—from Western governments in the event of a revolution.

Iranians are now left with a painful question: how much longer will they endure these sacrifices before they can achieve true freedom? They have little choice but the West has also a moral choice to make.

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Dr Walid Phares is a foreign policy expert and senior advisor to AMCD