Re: Next steps in Iran

by Kenneth R. Timmerman (March 14, 2026)

The Plan: Destroy the regime’s will to fight

Our military has been tremendously successful in destroying the Iranian regime’s military assets.

However, they have had less success in destroying the regime’s will to fight. Regime leaders, even as they succeed one another, continue to defy the United States and pledge their dedication to a long war. They appear to believe they can prolong the war for many months, eroding your edge in the mid-terms.

This is why we believe you should consider increasing the political and psychological pressure on the regime by taking the following three steps as fighting continues:

– appointing a Special Ambassador to the People of Iran,

– establishing safe zones in areas liberated by the Iranian people,

– bringing Iranian oil under U.S. control until a successor government takes control.

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The Special Ambassador

The Special Ambassador will be your personal envoy and will bring your authority to the table, much as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have done in other negotiations.

But this person needs to have a deep understanding of Iranian history, culture, and ethnic flashpoints. Ideally, he or she should also know many of the current opposition leaders because his role is not to negotiate an end to the war but to facilitate the creation of a viable political coalition to shape Iran’s future.

This is a task requiring a great deal of cultural sensitivity.

The Iranian opposition is fractured and, at present, does not pose a threat to the stability of the regime or its ability to survive the U.S.-Israeli military onslaught.

Iranian nationalists would like to restore the Pahlavi monarchy. Republican groups and leftists want a parliamentary government without a monarch.

Half of Iran’s population is non-Persian and views the restoration of the Pahlavi monarchy with tremendous skepticism, if not outright hostility. They also fear central government hegemony.

These minority populations – Kurds, Azeris, Ahvazi Arabs, Lurs, Baloch, and others – are also the best organized on the ground. Many have armed militias.

All of the Iranians we know, and who compromise our coalition, agree that they need a leader who is NOT Iranian to help them to forge a broad-based coalition.

Your Special Envoy will set up an advisory council of U.S. citizens from Iranian ethnic and political groups to represent the U.S. government. Later, they will establish an elected council with representatives from inside Iran, including political prisoners.

The ethnic minorities have the guns, the Persians have the money. The goal is to cut a deal between the two.

2) Establish safe zones in liberated areas.

All of Iran’s ethnic groups live on the country’s periphery, so once the regime collapses sufficiently for local groups to rise up and seize power it will be relatively simple for the US military to flow aid to them from across the borders.

The United States should extend our air umbrella to these “liberated zones,” much as we did to the Kurds in Iraq in the 1990s.

As the liberated zones expand inward, they will begin to encroach on Tehran, enveloping it like layers of an onion.

3) Bring Iranian oil under US control.

The regime derives over 50% of its income from oil exports, and 90% of those exports flow through Kharg Island.

Your decision to take out the military targets on Kharg on March 13 was brilliant. The next step is for us to take control of the oil export terminal itself, or alternatively to place it under naval blockade.

Without oil exports, the regime cannot pay its military or the Bassij. Without oil exports, the regime dies, and the people of Iran know this.

Taking control of Iran’s oil resources will have a huge psychological impact on the regime and signal to the Iranian people that the regime’s days are numbered.

The US does not need to damage the facilities. Indeed, it should announce publicly that it is holding them in escrow for the people of Iran once the war is over and a new regime takes control.

It was the oil field workers strike in 1978 that ultimately led to the downfall of the former Shah. Similarly, seizing or blockading Kharg will signal to the people of Iran that the regime is doomed.